Any uncertainty in the calculation of the object’s orbit causes variations in the predicted solution. Instead of one precise ...

Probability is one of those things we all get wrong… deeply wrong. The good news is we’re not the only ones, says John Haigh, a mathematician at the University of Sussex in Brighton, UK, and ...

The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. For example, if the impact probability is 1%, it means that in 1 of 100 cases, it hits Earth.

Impact Probability. To see whether an approaching object could hit Earth, researchers find out what an asteroid’s orbit looks like using a technique called astrometry. This technique can accurately ...